Battlefield Erosion -- Sober Stats for Dems

Demographic and political trends don't look good for Democrats, according to Mark Gersh of the National Committee for an Elective Congress. Among women, high school grads, Catholics, seniors, and Hispanics, support for Dems has decreased steadily from Clinton '96 to Gore '00 to Kerry '04.

Gersh supports the DLC's "heartland strategy" of expanding the battlefield and closing the trust gap on key issues. "The bottom line...is pretty clear: Democrats are unlikely to win presidential elections based on sheer turnout efforts, or by boosting their already extraordinary margins in Democratic base areas. Republicans have now caught up in the get-out-the-vote game, and they are unlikely to allow Democrats the kind of advantage they had in the past."